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This article suggests what our country might face in the near future. It poses an interesting military history perspective.
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Patience and Persistence
Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the lens of military history. I have joined the cast of thousands who have written an "open letter to Americans."
14 September, 2001
Dear friends and fellow Americans,
Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling from surprise. As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, I have a different perspective and I think you should hear it. This war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats, politicians or soldiers. Let me briefly explain.
In spite of what the media, and even our own government is telling us, this act was not committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't take this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and I deplore their tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels that have been made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are to the point. Not only because it was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America, but also because we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 years after we think this war is over, just like my father's generation had to do with the formidable Japanese in the years following WW II.
These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we must not underestimate the power of their moral commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman, stated "the moral is to the physical as three is to one." Patton thought the Frenchman underestimated its importance and said moral conviction was five times more important in battle than physical strength. Our enemies are willing--better said, anxious--to give their lives for their cause.
How committed are we America? And for how long?
In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare taught to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have been trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me. This was not a random act of violence, and we can expect the same sort of military competence to be displayed in the battle to come. This war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening right here in the good ol' U.S. of A.
These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We must not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the world's only "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in this fight. As you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for the march for war, please realize that America is not equipped or seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have some excellent "counter-terrorist" organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional "body snatch," (which may come in handy). We will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if their early efforts are any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man.
Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have already deployed their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a search and destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the public must be patient and supportive until the strategy and tactics can be worked out. For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining itself and presided over by men and women who grew up with--and were promoted because they excelled in--Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics. This will not be linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers of gravity" to strike with high technology weapons. Our vast technological edge will certainly be helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft--this will be a knife fight, and it will be won or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software or smart bombs. We must also be patient with our military leaders.
Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it. They plan to fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the American public loses its will to fight. This might be difficult to believe in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is generally acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight.
We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military history teacher) defeated the United States of America without ever winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers who marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled and spat upon less than three years later when they returned. Although we hope that Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ the concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent attacks, but also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging from livestock infestations to attacks at water supplies and power distribution facilities.
These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone" forcing the average American to "pay more and play less" and eventually eroding our resolve. But it can only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the will of the American citizenry-- you and I --is the center of gravity the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or defeat will turn.
He believes us to be soft, impatient, and self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz (the most often quoted and least read military theorist in history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity of war" that is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the political leadership of the government, and (3) the chance and probability that plays out on the field of battle, in that order. Every American citizen was in the crosshairs of last Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate enough to be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon.
The will of the American people will decide this war. If we are to win, it will be because we have what it takes to persevere through a few more hits, learn from our mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we can do that, we will eventually prevail. Everyone I've talked to in the past few days has shared a common frustration, saying in one form or another "I just wish I could do something!" You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America, and continue to support your President and military, and the outcome is certain. If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain.
God Bless America
Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy
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Concerning September 11, from the
USAF News and Information Service
October 2001
RUMSFELD PROVIDES THOUGHTS ON TERRORISM
Following are some concepts from Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld for
use in speeches, press briefings and talking points, for both internal and
external audiences:
Terrorist attack: The Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the United States was
carefully planned. There may be more attack plans in place, and we must
recognize that. It is likely that the terrorists planned not only the Sept.
11 attack and future attacks, but that they planned how they would hide and
what evidence they wished to leave behind for us to find to confuse our
search. Therefore, it will take sustained effort to root them out.
Expectations: The world needs to have realistic expectations. This campaign
is a marathon, not a sprint. No terrorist or terrorist network, such as the
al Qaeda network, is going to be conclusively dealt with by cruise missiles
or bombers. We recognize that it will take time and pressure on the
countries that harbor these people for the foes of terrorism to be
successful. Therefore, the fact the first, second or third wave of our
efforts does not produce specific people should not come as a surprise. We
are patient and determined.
Worldwide support: The legitimacy of our actions does not depend on how many
countries support us. More nearly the opposite is true; the legitimacy of
other countries' opinions should be judged by their attitude toward this
systematic, uncivilized assault on a free way of life.
Coalitions: The coalitions that are being fashioned will not be fixed;
rather, they will change and evolve. While most countries are concerned
about terrorism, and properly so, each country has a somewhat different
perspective and different relationships, views and concerns. It should not
be surprising that some countries will be supportive of some activities in
which the United States is engaged, while other countries will not. Which
group any country falls into will depend on the nature and location of the
activity. We recognize that some countries will have to conceal or downplay
their cooperation with us. That needs to be understood and accepted.
Fear: We understand that people have fears - fear for themselves, their
families and their governments. Therefore, some will be reluctant to join an
effort against terrorism or at least some aspects of our efforts. Terrorists
terrorize people. We accept that fact. However, we need people's help and
any information they can provide that will assist us. A number of countries
are helping quietly and we appreciate that. Indeed, we ask people across the
globe to provide us any information they have that can help in rooting out
terrorists and their networks.
Against terrorism, not the people: We are after terrorists and the regimes
that support them. This is not a war against people of any country. The
regimes that support terrorism terrorize their own people as well. We need
to enlist all civilized people to oppose terrorism, and we need to make it
safe for them to do so.
Not against Islam: This is not a war against Islam or any other religion.
The al Qaeda terrorists are extremists whose views are antithetical to those
of most Muslims. Their actions threaten the interests of the world's Muslims
and are aimed in part at preventing Muslim people from engaging the rest of
the world. There are millions of Muslims around the world who we expect to
become allies in this struggle.
Secondary effects: Finally, there will be secondary effects. We recognize
that as we continue to go after terrorism, our activities will have effects
in a number of countries. We have to accept that, given the importance of
the cause. As a result, relationships and alliances will be rearranged over
the coming years.
PRESIDENT ADDRESSES CONGRESS, AMERICAN PEOPLE
The following are excerpts from President Bush's Sept. 20 address to a joint
session of Congress and the nation concerning the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks
on the United States. The complete speech is available at www.whitehouse.gov.
Mr. Speaker, Mr. President Pro Tempore, members of Congress, and fellow
Americans:
In the normal course of events, presidents come to this chamber to report on
the state of the union. Tonight, no such report is needed. It has already
been delivered by the American people.
We have seen the state of our Union in the endurance of rescuers, working
past exhaustion. We have seen the unfurling of flags, the lighting of
candles, the giving of blood, the saying of prayers -- in English, Hebrew
and Arabic. We have seen the decency of a loving and giving people who have
made the grief of strangers their own.
My fellow citizens, for the last nine days, the entire world has seen for
itself the state of our union -- and it is strong.
Tonight, we are a country awakened to danger and called to defend freedom.
Our grief has turned to anger, and anger to resolution. Whether we bring our
enemies to justice, or bring justice to our enemies, justice will be done.
On behalf of the American people, I thank the world for its outpouring of
support. America will never forget the sounds of our National Anthem playing
at Buckingham Palace, on the streets of Paris and at Berlin's Brandenburg
Gate.
On September the 11th, enemies of freedom committed an act of war against
our country. Americans have known wars -- but for the past 136 years, they
have been wars on foreign soil, except for one Sunday in 1941. Americans
have known the casualties of war -- but not at the center of a great city on
a peaceful morning. Americans have known surprise attacks -- but never
before on thousands of civilians. All of this was brought upon us in a
single day -- and night fell on a different world, a world where freedom
itself is under attack.
Americans have many questions tonight. Americans are asking: Who attacked
our country? The evidence we have gathered all points to a collection of
loosely affiliated terrorist organizations known as al Qaeda. They are the
same murderers indicted for bombing American embassies in Tanzania and
Kenya, and responsible for bombing the USS Cole.
Al Qaeda is to terror what the Mafia is to crime. But its goal is not making
money; its goal is remaking the world -- and imposing its radical beliefs on
people everywhere.
The terrorists practice a fringe form of Islamic extremism that has been
rejected by Muslim scholars and the vast majority of Muslim clerics -- a
fringe movement that perverts the peaceful teachings of Islam. The
terrorists' directive commands them to kill Christians and Jews, to kill all
Americans, and make no distinction among military and civilians, including
women and children.
This group and its leader -- a person named Osama bin Laden -- are linked to
many other organizations in different countries, including the Egyptian
Islamic Jihad and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. There are thousands of
these terrorists in more than 60 countries. They are recruited from their
own nations and neighborhoods and brought to camps in places like
Afghanistan, where they are trained in the tactics of terror. They are sent
back to their homes or sent to hide in countries around the world to plot
evil and destruction.
Our war on terror begins with al Qaeda, but it does not end there. It will
not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped
and defeated.
Americans are asking, why do they hate us? They hate what we see right here
in this chamber -- a democratically elected government. Their leaders are
self-appointed. They hate our freedoms -- our freedom of religion, our
freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each
other.
Americans are asking: How will we fight and win this war? We will direct
every resource at our command -- every means of diplomacy, every tool of
intelligence, every instrument of law enforcement, every financial
influence, and every necessary weapon of war -- to the disruption and to the
defeat of the global terror network.
This war will not be like the war against Iraq a decade ago, with a decisive
liberation of territory and a swift conclusion. It will not look like the
air war above Kosovo two years ago, where no ground troops were used and not
a single American was lost in combat.
Our response involves far more than instant retaliation and isolated
strikes. Americans should not expect one battle, but a lengthy campaign,
unlike any other we have ever seen. It may include dramatic strikes, visible
on TV, and covert operations, secret even in success. We will starve
terrorists of funding, turn them one against another, drive them from place
to place, until there is no refuge or no rest. And we will pursue nations
that provide aid or safe haven to terrorism. Every nation, in every region,
now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the
terrorists. From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or
support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime.
Our nation has been put on notice: We are not immune from attack. We will
take defensive measures against terrorism to protect Americans. Today,
dozens of federal departments and agencies, as well as state and local
governments, have responsibilities affecting homeland security. These
efforts must be coordinated at the highest level. So tonight I announce the
creation of a cabinet-level position reporting directly to me -- the Office
of Homeland Security.
Many will be involved in this effort, from FBI agents to intelligence
operatives to the reservists we have called to active duty. All deserve our
thanks, and all have our prayers. And tonight, a few miles from the damaged
Pentagon, I have a message for our military: Be ready. I've called the armed
forces to alert, and there is a reason. The hour is coming when America will
act, and you will make us proud.
The civilized world is rallying to America's side. They understand that if
this terror goes unpunished, their own cities, their own citizens may be
next. Terror, unanswered, cannot only bring down buildings, it can threaten
the stability of legitimate governments. And you know what -- we're not
going to allow it.
Americans are asking: What is expected of us? I ask you to live your lives,
and hug your children. I know many citizens have fears tonight, and I ask
you to be calm and resolute, even in the face of a continuing threat.
I ask you to uphold the values of America, and remember why so many have
come here. We are in a fight for our principles, and our first
responsibility is to live by them. No one should be singled out for unfair
treatment or unkind words because of their ethnic background or religious
faith.
Great harm has been done to us. We have suffered great loss. And in our
grief and anger we have found our mission and our moment. Freedom and fear
are at war. The advance of human freedom -- the great achievement of our
time, and the great hope of every time -- now depends on us. Our nation --
this generation -- will lift a dark threat of violence from our people and
our future. We will rally the world to this cause by our efforts, by our
courage. We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail.
It is my hope that in the months and years ahead, life will return almost to
normal. We'll go back to our lives and routines, and that is good. Even
grief recedes with time and grace. But our resolve must not pass. Each of us
will remember what happened that day, and to whom it happened. We'll
remember the moment the news came -- where we were and what we were doing.
Some will remember an image of a fire, or a story of rescue. Some will carry
memories of a face and a voice gone forever.
Fellow citizens, we'll meet violence with patient justice -- assured of the
rightness of our cause, and confident of the victories to come. In all that
lies before us, may God grant us wisdom, and may He watch over the United
States of America.
QUOTABLE QUOTE
"I think the important thing to keep in mind is that this is not a question
of punishment or retaliation. This is a question of self-defense. The only
conceivable way that the United States can be protected against terrorist
acts of this type that take place inside of our country -- and, I might add,
potential terrorist attacks of considerably greater magnitude -- is if we
attack the problem of terrorism at its roots and go after the people who are
doing it. That is what needs to be done."
Donald Rumsfeld, secretary of defense
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